In the 15th minute, Moise Kean curled a clinical finish beyond Nikola Vasilj and it looked, briefly, as though Italy’s 2026 World Cup story might finally have a different ending. It did not. By the time Esmir Bajraktarević squeezed a low penalty under Gianluigi Donnarumma to seal a 4-1 shootout victory for Bosnia and Herzegovina in Zenica on March 31, 2026, the Azzurri had written yet another chapter in what is fast becoming the most catastrophic qualifying collapse in international football history.
Italy have now failed to qualify for three consecutive World Cups — 2018, 2022, and now 2026 — making them the first former champions in the history of the tournament to achieve this unwanted distinction. Their last World Cup match was a group-stage exit in Brazil in 2014. Their last win at the tournament came in 2006. The wait for a return to soccer’s biggest stage will now extend to at least 2030 — a minimum of 16 years without a single match at the FIFA World Cup.
How the Game Unfolded
The playoff final took place at the Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica, a 14,000-seat arena packed with deafening home support and surrounded by apartment towers overlooking the pitch. Italy, ranked 12th in the world and facing a Bosnia and Herzegovina side ranked 54 places below them by FIFA, were heavy favorites on paper.
Kean’s opener came from a fortunate error by goalkeeper Vasilj, who passed the ball directly into danger under pressure from Mateo Retegui. Nicolo Barella picked it up, fed Kean, and the striker confidently curled his eighth goal in six international appearances into the net.
But Italy’s night began to unravel in the 41st minute when center back Alessandro Bastoni was shown a straight red card for a reckless late challenge on Amar Memic. Referee Clement Turpin had no hesitation. From that point on, the Azzurri were fighting on multiple fronts — defending their lead, their discipline, and ultimately their World Cup dream with ten men.
Bosnia sensed the shift immediately. Donnarumma made a string of saves to keep Italy ahead — stopping Ermedin Demirovic’s header, denying Kerim Alajbegovic, and producing a remarkable block from Edin Dzeko’s effort — but he could not keep Bosnia out forever. In the 79th minute, substitute Haris Tabakovic poked home from a yard out after Donnarumma had parried brilliantly, and the stadium erupted.
The score remained 1-1 after 90 minutes and 1-1 after extra time, with Italy’s best chance in the added period falling to Pio Esposito, whose goalbound header was smothered by Vasilj.
The Penalty Shootout: Where Italy’s World Cup Dream Died
The penalty shootout followed a pattern that Italian fans have come to dread. Bosnia converted their first kick through Benjamin Tahirovic, sending Donnarumma the wrong way. Italy’s response, taken by Esposito, flew high over the crossbar.
Bosnia were clinical throughout. Tahirovic, teenager Kerim Alajbegovic, and substitute Haris Tabakovic all converted. Italy’s third kicker, Bryan Cristante, hammered his attempt against the crossbar. When Bajraktarević — born in Appleton, Wisconsin, and a converted U.S. international who switched allegiance to Bosnia in 2024 — squeezed his penalty under Donnarumma’s hands, the final score read Bosnia and Herzegovina 4-1 Italy on penalties.
Wild scenes followed in Zenica. The pitch was invaded. Grown men wept. In Italy, silence.
“We still don’t believe it — that we’re out and that it happened in this manner,” said defender Leonardo Spinazzola.
Italy head coach Gennaro Gattuso, himself a 2006 World Cup winner with the Azzurri, was visibly shaken in the post-match press conference. “I don’t think the boys deserved to suffer such a blow, for the performance, the effort and the heart that they showed tonight,” he said. “I’m proud of the boys. I want to personally apologize since we didn’t make it.”
A Crisis That Has Been Building for Years
Italy’s World Cup qualifying crisis did not begin in Zenica. It began in Milan in November 2017, when they failed to beat Sweden over two legs and missed the 2018 tournament in Russia. That shock was followed by a group-stage elimination at Euro 2016, a painful failure to reach Qatar 2022 after losing to North Macedonia in a playoff, and now this.
The Azzurri did win Euro 2020 — beating England on penalties at Wembley in one of the competition’s most memorable finals — but that triumph now sits in increasingly distant memory. The core issue is structural: Italy have consistently been unable to convert strong club talent into cohesive international performances in high-pressure knockout matches.
The statistics from Tuesday night underline the problem. Bosnia attempted 30 shots across 120 minutes against a ten-man Italian side — a figure that suggests Italy were under siege for most of the match, not merely a team that lost a coin flip in a shootout. The result, on balance, was not a robbery. It was a reckoning.
What Happens Next
Italy’s sports minister has already called on FIGC president Gabriele Gravina to resign following the elimination. Gravina has so far refused, stating he will remain in his position. Gattuso’s future as head coach is unclear, though Gravina publicly asked him to stay on.
The question of systemic reform — in youth development, tactical philosophy, and tournament mentality — will dominate Italian football discourse through the summer, as fans watch the 2026 World Cup in North America without their national team.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, meanwhile, advance to Group B at the 2026 World Cup, where they will face co-hosts Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland. For a country with a population of just 3.5 million, reaching the World Cup for only the second time in their history represents an extraordinary achievement.
For Italy, the reckoning continues.
